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Patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM) are risk stratified according to the Revised International Staging System (R-ISS) designed by the International Myeloma Working Group (IMWG).1 The R-ISS is based on parameters including the presence of beta-2 microglobulin, serum albumin levels, serum lactate dehydrogenase levels, and the presence of cytogenetic abnormalities. However, other high-risk factors such as the presence of multiple bone lesions and extramedullary disease have not been incorporated into the model. Recently, the IMWG recommend the use of imaging techniques, such as computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging, and 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/CT (18F-FDG PET/CT), to aid in the diagnosis of MM.1
Cho et al. along with the Korean Multiple Myeloma Working Party,1 recently designed a new risk stratification system that incorporates 18F-FDG PET/CT analysis with the R-ISS to effectively stratify patients with NDMM according to their survival outcomes. The development and validation of this new risk stratification model, the R-ISS/PET, was published in the Blood Cancer Journal and is summarized below.
Table 1. Patient characteristics*
Auto-HSCT, autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation; CA, cytogenetic abnormality; ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; iFISH, interphase fluorescent in situ hybridization; LDH, lactate dehydrogenase; PET/CT, positron emission tomography/computed tomography; R-ISS, Revised International Staging System. |
|
Characteristic, % (unless otherwise stated) |
n = 380 |
---|---|
Median age (range), years |
66 (34–86) |
≥65 years |
54.5 |
Male/Female |
52.1/47.9 |
ECOG PS, % |
|
0–1 |
77.4 |
2–3 |
20.0 |
Unknown |
2.6 |
Increased LDH |
27.9 |
Albumin ≥3.5 g/dL |
61.6 |
Beta-2 microglobulin ≥ 5.5 mg/L |
36.8 |
CA by iFISH |
|
Standard risk |
81.3 |
High risk |
18.7 |
R-ISS |
|
I |
20.5 |
II |
60.5 |
II |
18.9 |
Extramedullary disease |
13.4 |
No of focal lesions on PET/CT |
|
≤3 |
47.6 |
>3 |
52.4 |
Frontline therapy |
|
Proteasome inhibitors |
80.8 |
Immunomodulatory agents |
49.5 |
Auto-HSCT |
34.5 |
Table 2. Survival rates by the number of focal lesions or R-ISS stage*
18F-FDG PET/CT, 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography; FL, focal lesions; OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; R-ISS, Revised International Staging System. |
||
|
2-year PFS rate, % |
2-year OS rate, % |
---|---|---|
Number of FL on 18F-FDG PET/CT |
|
|
≤3 FL |
78.0 |
84.2 |
>3 FL |
42.9 |
62.5 |
R-ISS stage |
|
|
Stage I |
71.8 |
95.3 |
Stage II |
53.2 |
82.9 |
Stage III |
26.8 |
61.2 |
A K-adaptive partitioning algorithm was undertaken to provide a statistically optimized combination of R-ISS with the number of focal lesions seen on 18F-FDG-PET/CT. Patients were defined into four groups, which successfully distinguished the patients with regard to 2-year PFS (p < 0.001) and 2-year OS (p < 0.001), as seen in Table 3. This was independent of transplant eligibility and treatment type.
Table 3. Survival rates by R-ISS/PET*
FL, focal lesions; OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; R-ISS/PET, Revised International Staging System with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. |
||||
R-ISS/PET stage |
Combination |
% of patients |
2-year PFS |
2-year OS |
---|---|---|---|---|
I |
R-ISS I with FL ≤3 |
8.2 |
84.1 |
96.7 |
II |
R-ISS I with FL >3 and R-ISS II with FL ≤3 |
41.1 |
64.7 |
89.8 |
III |
R-ISS II with FL >3 and R-ISS III with FL ≤3 |
42.6 |
40.8 |
74.7 |
IV |
R-ISS III with FL >3 |
8.2 |
17.1 |
50.3 |
The C-index values for OS and PFS were 0.668 (0.609–0.725) and 0.657 (0.615-0.698), respectively.
Multivariate Cox analysis (Table 4) also showed the R-ISS/PET was a significant factor in predicting long-term outcomes with regard to PFS and OS, with an increasing hazard ratio with each stage compared to Stage I.
Table 4. Multivariate analysis of factors affecting PFS and OS with the R-ISS/PET*
CI, confidence interval; ECOG PS, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status; EMD, extramedullary disease; HR, hazard ratio; OS, overall survival; PFS, progression free survival; R-ISS/PET, Revised International Staging System with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. |
||||
Factor |
PFS |
OS |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
HR (95% CI) |
p value |
HR (95% CI) |
p value |
|
Age, ≥65 years vs <65 years |
1.33 (0.98–1.80) |
0.063 |
1.56 (0.99–2.45) |
0.053 |
ECOG PS, 2–3 vs 0–1 |
1.01 (0.91–1.13) |
0.848 |
1.14 (1.01–1.28) |
0.034 |
EMD |
1.22 (0.80–1.84) |
0.353 |
1.68 (0.97–2.91) |
0.062 |
R-ISS/PET stage |
|
|
|
|
I |
1.00 |
|
1.00 |
|
II |
2.21 (1.00–4.90) |
0.050 |
2.50 (0.59–10.7) |
0.215 |
III |
4.57 (2.09–10.0) |
<0.001 |
5.11 (1.23–21.3) |
0.035 |
IV |
9.48 (3.88–12.2) |
<0.001 |
10.3 (2.24–47.0) |
0.003 |
When assessed by the R-ISS stage, the external validation cohort showed similar 2-year PFS rates and 2-year OS rates to the initial cohort (Table 5). The classic stages showed a good degree of separation for survival outcomes (p = 0.268 for 2-year PFS and p = 0.037 for 2-year OS).
Table 5. Survival rates by R-ISS stage in the validation cohort*
OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; R-ISS, Revised International Staging System. |
||
R-ISS stage |
2-year PFS rate, % |
2-year OS rate, % |
---|---|---|
I |
88.9 |
100 |
II |
60.4 |
80.3 |
III |
39.3 |
61.3 |
When the external validation cohort was assessed by the R-ISS/PET (Table 6), the stages also showed a significant separation for survival outcomes (p = 0.004 for 2-year PFS and p = 0.001 for 2-year OS).
Table 6. Survival rates by R-ISS/PET stage in the validation cohort*
OS, overall survival; PFS, progression-free survival; R-ISS/PET, Revised International Staging System with 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography. |
|||
R-ISS/PET stage |
% of patients |
2-year PFS, % |
2-year OS, % |
---|---|---|---|
I |
2.6 |
100 |
100 |
II |
27.6 |
74.5 |
89.9 |
III |
40.8 |
57.9 |
82.6 |
IV |
17.1 |
25.6 |
42.0 |
The number of focal lesions assessed by 18F-FDG PET/CT was demonstrated to be a reliable imaging parameter for predicting survival outcomes and therefore a feasible factor to be incorporated with the R-ISS. This new risk stratification model, the R-ISS/PET, was validated by an external cohort and was able to define patients with NDMM into four risk groups according to survival differences. The R-ISS/PET was able to separate patients in the R-ISS Stage II group (which accounted for ~60% of the population) and allows for a more accurate prognosis than the R-ISS.
This study is limited by the retrospective nature of the analysis as there was no standardization of the interpretation of the imaging analysis. Therefore, the results may be subjected to inter-hospital variations between the ten centers where the data were collected. Furthermore, false negatives could be possible for patients with extensive bone involvement but low expression of hexokinase-2 (the enzyme involved in the glycolysis of FDG in malignant cells). Therefore, a prospective study using newer high-risk fluorescent in situ hybridization markers such as t(14;20), gain(1q21), and del(1p32) may be required to further validate the R-ISS/PET model.
References
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